Anthony Green, well-known election analyst, lists Batman as Labor's safest seat with a margin of 24.8%. However, he notes that "the margins for Batman and Grayndler are shown with a two-party preferred [Labor/Liberal] margin despite the Greens finishing second at the 2010 election." When you look at the seat as Labor/Greens marginal a different picture emerges.
From Leone Taylor, 'The Guardian':
Batman is officially Labor’s safest seat, held by a margin of 24.8%.
But an aggregation of the last two years’ polling in the seat by Roy Morgan Research suggests the ALP’s primary vote has fallen from 52% secured by Ferguson in 2010 to 38%, while the Green vote has increased from 23% to 29.7% and the Liberal vote from around 20% to 26%.
The figures suggest the Greens could come second on the primary vote and the result could be determined by Liberal party preferences. If they flow 80% to the Greens, as they did in 2010, the Green candidate, Alex Bhathal, would take the seat.
But the Liberals in Victoria are likely to preference Labor over the Greens, which would dramatically lower the preference flow to the Greens if Liberal voters follow their how to vote cards...